Fantasy Henley 2018 – Prediction Results

Fantasy Henley 2018 – Prediction Results


The water is warm, there’s hardly any stream, there’s a honking great tailwind and records might tumble… and one already has! An incredible 570 entries into this year’s Fantasy Henley is well above our previous best and even more than we had for Rio2016 !!

There has been an unanticipated complication this year with a late entry/entry amendement in the Stonor Challenge Trophy. The late introduction of C.R.L. Hodgkins-Byrne & A. Thornton has meant that we will have to void all Stonor Challenge Trophy predictions and there will be no points awarded. Sadly there is no other fair way of doing it.

Looking at some of the predictions:

  • This year it’s the Prince Albert where all bets are off, Imperial College are favourites with 22.28% with Durham University close behind on 17.60% – it’s going to be a tough fight!

  • The strongest favourite this year is the GB Quad racing in the Queen Mother as Leander & Agecroft on 93.39% although St Pauls School are on 91.77% in the PE. No crew with over 90% of support from the Fantasy Rowing community has ever lost. (the greatest upset on record is Mahe Drysdale losing to Hannes Obreno in HRR 2016 on support of over 88%.)

  • Based on previous results any crew with support of more than 60% of the fantasy rowing community has an 84% probability of success but support between 50% and 60% indicates that a crew’s probability of success is only 53%

  • The fantasy rowing community are right 55% of the time.

As usual, only crews with 5% or more show up in the graphs but at the bottom of the page you’ll find the full breakdown…enjoy!




THE GRAND CHALLENGE CUP

2 Georgina Hope Rinehart National Training Centre Australia - 11.31%
3 Leander Club and Molesey Boat Club - 86.89%

THE REMENHAM CHALLENGE CUP

4 Amsterdamsche Studenten Roeivereeniging Nereus Netherlands - 9.36%
5 Georgina Hope Rinehart National Training Centre Australia - 11.56%
9 Leander Club and University of London - 28.62%
13 Oxford Brookes University - 10.09%
14 Princeton Training Center USA - 16.7%
15 Roeivereniging SilVia Netherlands - 7.89%
21 University of Washington USA - 6.61%

THE LADIES CHALLENGE PLATE

24 Leander Club - 6.22%
25 Oxford Brookes University - 81.17%
26 Oxford Brookes University and Edinburgh University - 9.32%
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