The Boat Races 2015 – Prediction Results




Here are the prediction results for the 2015 Boat Race.

In the run up to the election, political parties would do anything for this kind of support – fairly unanimous in favour of Oxford.

A total of 222 people made predictions for the boat race although not all those people made margin predictions.

Men’s Blue Boat – CUBC on Surrey


Who do people think will win?

Oxford Win - 93.67%
Cambridge Win - 6.33%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Oxford Win

1 length or less - 0.62%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 31.06%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 46.58%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 18.01%
More than 7 lengths - 3.73%

With Oxford getting clear water after 7:36.6

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Cambridge Win

1 length or less - 28.57%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 42.86%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 14.29%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 14.29%
More than 7 lengths - 0%

With Cambridge getting clear water after 10:19.2


Men’s Blue Boat – CUBC on Middlesex


Who do people think will win?

Oxford Win - 95.5%
Cambridge Win - 4.5%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Oxford Win

1 length or less - 2.53%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 33.54%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 43.04%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 17.09%
More than 7 lengths - 3.8%

With Oxford getting clear water after 7:50.4

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Cambridge Win

1 length or less - 20%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 20%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 60%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 0%
More than 7 lengths - 0%

With Cambridge getting clear water after 10:00.0






Women’s Blue Boat – CUWBC on Surrey


Who do people think will win?

Oxford Win - 86.88%
Cambridge Win - 13.12%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Oxford Win

1 length or less - 2.8%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 18.69%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 17.76%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 24.3%
More than 7 lengths - 36.45%

With Oxford getting clear water after 5:52.8

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Cambridge Win

1 length or less - 0%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 25%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 0%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 50%
More than 7 lengths - 25%

With Cambridge getting clear water after 7:37.2


Women’s Blue Boat – CUWBC on Middlesex


Who do people think will win?

Oxford Win - 87.84%
Cambridge Win - 12.16%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Oxford Win

1 length or less - 2.73%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 17.27%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 19.09%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 23.64%
More than 7 lengths - 37.27%

With Oxford getting clear water at 6:39.0

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Cambridge Win

1 length or less - 0%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 16.67%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 33.33%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 33.33%
More than 7 lengths - 16.67%

With Cambridge getting clear water at 7:52.8






Men’s reserves


Who do people think will win?

Isis win - 88.94%
Goldie win - 11.06%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Isis win

1 length or less - 4.26%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 25.53%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 23.4%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 20.21%
More than 7 lengths - 26.6%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Goldie win

1 length or less - 0%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 40%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 50%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 10%
More than 7 lengths - 0%

Women’s Reserves


Who do people think will win?

Osiris win - 77.88%
Blondie win - 22.12%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be an Osiris win

1 length or less - 1.41%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 29.58%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 29.58%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 18.31%
More than 7 lengths - 21.13%

Margin predictions of those people who think it will be a Blondie win

1 length or less - 23.53%
More than 1 length but 3 lengths or less - 41.18%
More than 3 lengths but 5 lengths or less - 23.53%
More than 5 lengths but 7 lengths or less - 11.76%
More than 7 lengths - 0%