Going into finals day, the top of the Fantasy HWR table is a logjam. Four players share top spot on 750 points: emilio, M Murphy, lookatergofaster and robilara. Fifteen back sit five more on 735: Rowcoach, Fraser Innes, SashaYappa, Nathan and pgvortextips. What rounds out the ten on 720.

Nobody has pulled clear because the leaders agree on most of the survivors. They are all on Marlow RC A in the Bea Langridge (a 46% favourite), Wycliffe Coll A in the Di Ellis (50%), Reading Univ A in the Nina Padwick (55%) and Wallingford RC A in the Groton. Those are points the whole front group banks together. The title gets decided where they disagree, and where their crews are still in the draw.

The four duels that decide the title

Four finals put one leader's crew directly against another's. In each, both backed crews are still racing, so exactly one side scores.

Chairman's Trophy: Marlow RC A v London RC. emilio, M Murphy and lookatergofaster are all on Marlow RC A, the 52% favourite. robilara is the lone holdout on London RC.

Colgan Foundation Cup: Oxford Brookes Univ v Edinburgh Univ BC. Same split. The trio back Oxford Brookes (43%); robilara is alone again on Edinburgh. robilara has staked the title on two underdogs landing back to back.

Haslam Trophy: London RC v Reading Univ A. This time M Murphy is the odd one out on Reading Univ A, while emilio, lookatergofaster and robilara sit on London RC.

Redgrave Challenge Vase: Oxford Univ BC v Brown Univ. emilio and robilara hold Oxford Univ BC; M Murphy is the contrarian on Brown Univ, a 6% pick. lookatergofaster is already out here, having backed Leander before they were knocked out.

The free swings

Two finals leave only one leader standing, a clean chance to break the tie.

Godfrey Rowsports Trophy. emilio is the only leader still alive, on University Coll Cork. The other three backed crews that are already out. If Cork win, emilio moves clear alone.

Rosie Mayglothling Trophy. The mirror image. lookatergofaster is the only leader left in, on Univ of St Andrews A. The other three are gone.

Points already conceded

Some leaders have lost finals before a blade hits the water. robilara is out of the Avril Vellacott, where the others hold Thames A (37%). M Murphy is out of both the Copas Cup and the George Innes. emilio missed the Lester Trophy. lookatergofaster is out of the W Peer Cup, where Leander A (64%) carries the rest. Each one is a small lead handed to the others.

Add it up and emilio looks best placed: alive in all four duels, mostly on the favoured side, with a free shot at Godfrey. robilara is the gambler, needing London RC and Edinburgh to upset the odds. M Murphy is the most exposed, two finals already gone and two contrarian calls still to land. lookatergofaster took an early hit at Redgrave but owns the Rosie Mayglothling outright.

The chasers' way back

The pack on 735 need the leaders to slip, and two finals hand them the opening. In the Bernard and Pauline Churcher Cup every leader is out, all stuck on Mortlake, but Rowcoach, Fraser Innes and pgvortextips are alive on Glasgow Univ, a 3% call almost nobody saw. In the Fiona Dennis Trophy the leaders are all out on Hollingworth Lake while Nathan alone holds Vesta RC A. Those are the rare finals where a chaser can take points the top four cannot.

One the whole field got wrong

Spare a thought for the Frank V Harry Cup. Every player in the top ten backed Edinburgh Univ BC, a 44% favourite, and they never reached the final. A clean blank for everyone, and a reminder that one upset can wipe out a whole tier of the table at once.