Three really is the magic number at World Cup III in Lucerne.
Matthew G goes into the final day on top of the Fantasy World Cup III with 410. JoanneH, who led the regatta from the front until Saturday, sits two points back on 408. Seventeen A-finals score today. Here is the thing about those two cards: they are almost the same.
Across the seventeen scoring finals, Matthew G and JoanneH have picked the identical crew fourteen times. Same call in the Men's Double, same call in the Women's Double, same in both quads, same in the Women's Single, same in the Men's Four. When two players are matched that tightly, the gap between them cannot move in those races. It can only move in the three where they split. So a two horse title race that looks like it could swing on any of seventeen results actually comes down to three: the Men's Pair, the Women's Four and the Women's Eight.
Behind the leading pair the table is bunched. shh545 is third on 400. Three players share fourth on 395: Stuart, Oars before Whores and Crew Picks. rowenaprice and MrLoHi are tied seventh on 391, with Imogen and Matthew Wilson on 383 and 379.
Standings into the final day
| Rank | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew G | 410 |
| 2 | JoanneH | 408 |
| 3 | shh545 | 400 |
| 4= | Stuart | 395 |
| 4= | Oars before Whores | 395 |
| 4= | Crew Picks | 395 |
| 7= | rowenaprice | 391 |
| 7= | MrLoHi | 391 |
Where it is already decided
A lot of today moves nobody at the top, because the whole leading group is stacked on the same boat. All seven of our cards are on Australia in the PR3 Women's Pair, Great Britain 1 in both the PR1 Men's Single and the Men's Four, Great Britain in the Women's Single, the Netherlands in the Men's Eight, and Germany 1 in the Men's Single that closes the regatta. The Mixed Double is all but unanimous on United States 1. Watch those as rowing, not as fantasy. Whatever the result, everyone scores it together and the gaps hold.
The two horse race: three forks
Men's Pair, the first split. Matthew G is on Australia 1. JoanneH is the only one of the seven on Switzerland. This is the leader and the chaser pulling apart for the first time all day, and it is the kind of solo call that built JoanneH's total in the first place. For the record, shh545 and MrLoHi are on the United States here, and Crew Picks backed Great Britain, who did not make the A-final and cannot score the medal points at all.
Women's Four, the second split. Matthew G is on the Netherlands, JoanneH on the United States, and both crews are in the A-final, so this is a clean head to head. shh545 and Oars before Whores are alongside Matthew G on the Netherlands. Crew Picks and MrLoHi are alongside JoanneH on the United States. Stuart is the only one who went a third way, to Australia. If the Dutch beat the Americans, the leader stretches clear. If the order reverses, JoanneH closes.
Women's Eight, the decider. This is the last swing race of the weekend, and it is the one where the leader stands alone. Matthew G is on the United States. JoanneH is on Australia 1, and so are shh545, Oars before Whores, Stuart and MrLoHi. Almost the entire room is on the Australian boat and Matthew G is not. If Australia 1 win the Women's Eight, JoanneH gains on the leader and most of the chasers hold station with JoanneH. Matthew G needs the United States to come out on top here, against the weight of the field.
So the title sequence is simple. If Matthew G matches JoanneH across the Men's Pair, Women's Four and Women's Eight, the two point lead survives the day. If JoanneH wins any one of those three exchanges outright, the regatta is theirs.
The chasers' angles
shh545, third on 400, cannot win by following the leaders, and has not tried to. shh545 is on Switzerland in the PR1 Women's Single where the leaders are on Ireland, on United States 1 in the Women's Pair where they are on Chile, on Belgium in the Men's Double where almost everyone else is on Serbia, and on the Netherlands in the Men's Quad where the leaders are on Germany. Four contrarian calls. Each one only pays if a crew the leaders come up short, but four live differences is a real path from ten back.
The three players tied on 395 are running out of room, and two of them have a self inflicted problem today. Crew Picks backed Great Britain in the Men's Pair, a B-finalist, so that pick scores nothing while the players around them are live on boats in the A-final. Stuart is the only one of the seven off the Netherlands in the Women's Double, having gone to China 1, who are also out in the B-final; if the Dutch medal, the entire pack pulls away from Stuart in one race. Oars before Whores has the cleanest contrarian book of the trio, sitting with shh545 on United States 1 in the Women's Pair and on the Netherlands in both the Women's Four and the Women's Quad. From fourth, they need those off-favourite calls to land where the leaders' do not.
The read
The headline is a two point lead, but the truth underneath it is that Matthew G and JoanneH have agreed with each other almost everywhere. Fourteen of seventeen finals are shared ground, which means the championship is not really a seventeen race shootout. It is three duels: Australia 1 against Switzerland in the Men's Pair, the Netherlands against the United States in the Women's Four, and the United States against Australia 1 in the Women's Eight. Win the exchanges and Matthew G is champion. Lose one and JoanneH is.
The chasers need more than that. shh545 needs the contrarian card to fire across four races. The players on 395 need the favourites to wobble and their own off-piste calls to come good, and two of them are already a scoring boat down before the A-finals begin. Seventeen finals on the programme, and only three that decide who lifts it.
