The crowd has done something unusual at World Rowing Cup 2: it has agreed and disagreed at the same time, and the dividing line is the size of the boat.
In the eights, the verdict is close to unanimous. 96.79% of pickers have taken the United States in the Women's Eight, the most one-sided call on the card by a distance. The American men's eight sits at 78.54%, and the US mixed double at 84.42%. But walk down the program from eights to fours to doubles to singles and the consensus dissolves in your hands. By the time you reach the Women's Single, the two favourites are separated by half a percentage point. In the Men's Single, the most popular crew in the event couldn't convince even a quarter of the field.
The eights are settled. The singles are an argument. The question this weekend answers is which end of the card the crowd actually understands.
Headline Numbers
| Event | Top pick | % |
|---|---|---|
| Women's Eight | United States | 96.79 |
| Mixed Double Sculls | United States | 84.42 |
| Men's Eight | United States | 78.54 |
| Men's Pair | New Zealand | 70.05 |
| PR2 Mixed Double Sculls | Turkey | 62.50 |
| Lightweight Women's Single Sculls | Venezuela 1 | 56.70 |
| PR3 Mixed Double Sculls | Uzbekistan | 53.13 |
| Men's Double Sculls | Croatia | 47.76 |
| Women's Quadruple Sculls | Romania | 46.05 |
| Lightweight Men's Double Sculls | Venezuela | 44.90 |
| Men's Quadruple Sculls | Italy | 43.26 |
| Women's Double Sculls | Romania | 41.79 |
| Lightweight Men's Single Sculls | Ukraine | 40.93 |
| Men's Four | United States | 40.57 |
| Women's Four | New Zealand | 38.21 |
| Women's Pair | United States of America 1 | 35.35 |
| Women's Single | United States | 28.93 |
| Men's Single Sculls | United States of America 1 | 21.32 |
Seven of eighteen events have an American crew on top. None of the last five events on that table have a favourite above 40%.
There's a second layer to read alongside the crowd. Three of World Rowing Cup 1's top five have their cards in: Chadland, the reigning champion, plus Matthew G (3rd) and Fatsculler (4th). Mostly they ride with the crowd. Where they don't, you'll find it below, event by event, and it's the most interesting data of the week.
How the Weekend Runs
Friday is heats. Saturday brings the sculling semifinals and the first four finals, all inside 40 minutes: the PR2 Mixed Double at 08:05, the Lightweight Men's Double at 08:18, the Lightweight Women's Single at 08:31 and the Lightweight Men's Single at 08:45 (all times UTC). That last one is worth an early alarm: the Lightweight Women's Single is where Chadland and Fatsculler are both against the 56.70% favourite, Venezuela 1, having taken Republic of Korea 1 at 33.51%.
The other fourteen events hold their answers until Sunday, when the championship finals run from 08:05 to the Mixed Double Sculls at 10:54. Keep that split in mind reading what follows: some of these arguments settle a full day before the others.
The American Favourites
The Women's Eight is barely a prediction at all. The United States at 96.79%, China at 3.21%, nobody else in the conversation. If the US wins, almost the entire game banks the same points and the leaderboard doesn't move an inch.
The Men's Eight carries the same shape with one wrinkle: Italy at 19.18% is the largest "second opinion" in any of the big-boat events. One picker in five thinks the Italian eight beats the American one. The Mixed Double is American chalk too, at 84.42%, with Venezuela 1 the only challenger to clear ten percent (10.55%). The sharps see no value in being clever here: Chadland, Matthew G and Fatsculler are all on the American boat in all three events. None of it resolves until the regatta's last 40 minutes on Sunday: the Women's Eight final at 10:17, the Men's Eight at 10:43, and the Mixed Double closing the card at 10:54.
The Kiwi Pair
New Zealand's Men's Pair is the fourth pillar of the consensus at 70.05%. What's striking is the wasteland behind it: Croatia at 11.17%, then daylight. Five crews in this event drew 0.00% support. Brazil, China, India, Uzbekistan and Venezuela go to the start line with not one picker on their side. All three sharps are with the 70.05%. Semifinals run Saturday morning; Final A goes off Sunday at 08:17.
The Coin Flips
This is where the weekend gets decided.
Women's Single: the half-point race. The United States at 28.93%, Romania at 28.43%. Half a percentage point between the two favourites, and behind them a genuine mess: Serbia and Uzbekistan 1 tied to the decimal at 7.61%, Croatia at 7.11%, Czech Republic and Ukraine 1 tied at 6.60%. Nine crews with meaningful support. Whatever happens here, most of the game is wrong. And the sharps think both sides of the coin flip are wrong: Chadland and Fatsculler each picked Serbia at 7.61%, while Matthew G went further down the table to Brazil at 3.55%. Final A is Sunday at 10:02, opening the regatta's closing hour.
Lightweight Men's Single: 2.59 points apart. Ukraine at 40.93%, Venezuela at 38.34%. A two-horse argument with Uzbekistan (10.88%) holding the swing vote. Or so the crowd thinks: Chadland and Fatsculler both took the swing vote itself, Uzbekistan, with Matthew G staying on the Ukrainian favourite. This one closes Saturday's finals card at 08:45, the first coin flip of the weekend to land.
PR3 Mixed Double: the purest split on the card. Uzbekistan 53.13%, Turkey 46.88%. Two crews, one race, and the game divided nearly down the middle. The sharps split along the same line: Chadland and Matthew G on Uzbekistan, Fatsculler on Turkey. Compare that with the PR2, where the same two nations flip the script: Turkey 62.50%, Uzbekistan 37.50%. The crowd thinks these two para doubles go one apiece, and there's a full day between the answers: the PR2 opens Saturday's finals at 08:05, while the PR3 waits until Sunday at 09:22.
Women's Four: the quiet one. New Zealand 38.21%, the United States 33.02%, Romania a live third at 17.92%. Five points covers the top two in an event where the US is otherwise hoovering up favourite status. Two of the three sharps (Matthew G and Fatsculler) took the American side of the gap; Chadland stayed with New Zealand. The final is Sunday at 08:56.
Men's Single: nobody knows. United States of America 1 leads at 21.32%, the lowest leading share of any event. Italy sits at 19.29%, then Croatia and United States of America 2 tied at 14.72%, Romania 1 at 11.68%. Five crews within ten points of the lead: the most open race of the regatta by the crowd's own admission. And not one of the sharps is on the nominal favourite. Matthew G and Fatsculler both took the other American single, United States of America 2 at 14.72%, while Chadland took Romania 1 at 11.68%. The schedule has given this race the stage it deserves: Final A goes off Sunday at 10:29, wedged between the two eights.
The Middle of the Card
The sculling events mostly have clear but not crushing favourites. Croatia leads the Men's Double at 47.76% over New Zealand (17.41%) and Italy 1 (14.93%). Italy heads the Men's Quad at 43.26% with Croatia chasing at 25.58%. Venezuela tops the Lightweight Men's Double at 44.90% over Uzbekistan's 25.00%, and this event hides the boldest pick on any of the three sharps' cards: Fatsculler on Azerbaijan at 9.69%. That final is Saturday at 08:18, so the weekend's bravest call is also one of the first to be marked.
Romania is the crowd's sculling nation of the weekend on the women's side: 46.05% in the Quad and 41.79% in the Double. The best players in the game don't believe it. All three picked the United States in the Women's Double, a crew the crowd has at just 16.42%. Three of the best players in the game, independently, on a one-in-six pick. The same pattern holds in the Quad, where not one of the three is on Romania: Chadland took New Zealand (28.37%), Matthew G and Fatsculler took the United States (14.42%). Call it the collective Romania fade. It is the loudest signal on the card, and it resolves in a 66-minute window on Sunday morning: the Double's Final A at 08:30, the Quad's final at 09:36.
The sweep events round out the middle. The United States leads the Men's Four at 40.57% over New Zealand (27.36%), with Chadland out alone on Italy 1 at 8.49%. In the Women's Pair, United States of America 1 (35.35%) heads New Zealand (27.27%) and the Czech Republic (18.18%), and the sharps lean contrarian here too: Chadland and Matthew G both have the Czechs, third in the crowd's order.
Three Things to Watch
The Women's Single, twice over. The crowd split 28.93 to 28.43 between the US and Romania, and then the three best-credentialed players in the game ignored both and went 7.61% and lower. If Serbia wins at 10:02 on Sunday, two of last event's podium pull clear of nearly the entire field in one race.
The Romania question. Romania leads the crowd in the Women's Double (41.79%) and Women's Quad (46.05%), and the World Cup 1 podium faded both. Two finals, 66 minutes apart on Sunday morning. Either the sharps have seen something the crowd hasn't, or the gap behind Chadland is about to get wider for everyone who followed them.
The 96.79% banker. The US Women's Eight is the closest thing this game has ever offered to a free square. Which is exactly why the result matters: if it lands at 10:17 on Sunday, nothing changes; if it doesn't, all but 3.21% of the game takes a zero in the same race, and the leaderboard math resets in a single final.
The eights will tell you who the fastest crews are. The singles will tell you who the best players are. At World Rowing Cup 2, those are different questions, and the gap between them is where this leaderboard gets decided.
