The crowd came into Henley Women's with a short list of answers. Leander, four times over. Marlow RC A, twice. Reading Univ A, twice. Oxford Brookes Univ, twice. Across twenty-three trophies the field kept reaching for the same handful of names, and in the biggest event of the lot it reached hardest: 64.16% of pickers handed the W Peer Cup to Leander A before a blade touched the water.
beth20 did almost none of that. The player at the top of the table sits on 150 points, fifteen clear of a chasing trio (Rowcoach, Henry109 and M Murphy, all level on 135), and beth20 got there by buying crews nobody else wanted. Their Saturday card is a row of longshots the crowd rated at 0.88%, 0.90%, even 0.00%.
Hold on... beth20 has a pick that has 0.00% support?
How is that possible???
It's possible when you enter late and accept completely random picks!
That's right... beth20 rolled the dice and is top dog going into day 2 of HWR. A stopped clock is right twice a day, and it's about time the "I'm feeling lucky" button had its moment of glory!
The Standings Going Into Saturday
| Rank | Player | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | beth20 | 150 |
| 2 | Rowcoach | 135 |
| 3 | Henry109 | 135 |
| 4 | M Murphy | 135 |
| 5 | klangerman | 120 |
| 6 | Oscar Lane | 120 |
| 7 | Shelly | 120 |
| 8 | Allig8r | 120 |
| 9 | Megatron | 120 |
| 10 | Pri | 120 |
The whole top ten fits inside two race wins: beth20 alone on 150, a trio on 135, and a six-strong pack on 120. The lottery winner's cushion is exactly one quarter-final result wide.
Headline Numbers
| Event | Crowd's top pick | % |
|---|---|---|
| W Peer Cup | Leander A | 64.16 |
| Nina Padwick Trophy | Reading Univ A | 55.36 |
| Peabody Cup | Shiplake Coll | 54.25 |
| Chairman's Trophy | Marlow RC A | 52.16 |
| Di Ellis Trophy | Wycliffe Coll A | 50.00 |
| Bea Langridge Trophy | Marlow RC A | 46.41 |
| Frank V Harry Cup | Edinburgh Univ BC | 44.25 |
| Haslam Trophy | Reading Univ A | 44.20 |
| Redgrave Challenge Vase | Leander | 42.99 |
| Colgan Foundation Cup | Oxford Brookes Univ | 42.51 |
| Lester Trophy | Molesey BC A | 41.78 |
| George Innes Cup | Leander | 39.37 |
| Ron Needs Challenge Cup | Leander A | 36.96 |
| Avril Vellacott Cup | Thames A | 36.68 |
| Borne Cup | Reading Univ A | 34.45 |
| Rayner Cup | Marlow RC | 34.07 |
| Cathy Cruickshank Trophy | Oxford Brookes Univ | 33.78 |
| Copas Cup | London RC A | 32.00 |
| Groton School Challenge Cup | Wallingford RC A | 29.82 |
| Godfrey Rowsports Trophy | Edinburgh Univ BC | 28.05 |
| Fiona Dennis Trophy | Vesta RC A | 25.91 |
| Rosie Mayglothling Trophy | Nottingham A | 19.20 |
| Bernard and Pauline Churcher Cup | Mortlake A & A | 18.64 |
Read it top to bottom and the same clubs keep recurring. The chasing trio more or less bought this table as printed. beth20's random board just happens to disagree with it, and so far the disagreements keep winning.
The Leander Question
Four trophies, four shades of pink. The W Peer Cup favourite (64.16%) does not race competitively until Sunday's quarter-final against St Andrew BC, so Leander A's biggest bet of all sits untouched. In the George Innes Cup (39.37%), Leander has already delivered, beating Willem III in Friday's quarter-final, with Henry109 along for the ride. In the Ron Needs Challenge Cup (36.96%), Leander A posted the fastest heat in the field and now meets its own second crew, Leander B, in Saturday's quarter-final at 14:40. A pink boat goes home either way.
Then the crack. Leander took 42.99% of the Redgrave Challenge Vase, the second-heaviest Leander number on the board, and Leander does not appear in Saturday's Redgrave quarter-final draw. Eight crews remain (Edinburgh Univ BC, Ruder-Union Arkona, Surbiton HS, Oxford Univ BC, Upper Thames RC, Brown Univ, Imperial Coll, Lea RC) and the favourite is not among them. The three who studied the form and the one who left it to chance all landed on the field: beth20 drew Imperial Coll, Rowcoach took Ruder-Union Arkona, Henry109 took Oxford Univ BC, M Murphy took Brown Univ, and every one of those is still alive. The crowd bought Leander. The room (and the random number generator) bought the field, and the field is what survives.
The Chalk That Held Friday
The favourites that did race on Friday mostly answered the bell. Marlow RC A (Chairman's, 52.16%) won its heat and waits on Globe in Saturday's quarter-final at 16:38. London RC A (Copas, 32.00%) won its heat. Molesey BC A (Lester, 41.78%) won its heat. The chasing trio backed all three, and Friday paid them.
beth20's random board landed in the same three events from the far bank and is still standing in each. London RC (Chairman's) won its heat over Eton Excelsior and draws Broxbourne A at 16:34. In the Copas, beth20's Marlow RC and M Murphy's Thames both won on Friday and now meet head to head in Saturday's quarter-final at 16:50, one of the top four knocking another out. In the Lester, beth20's Thames won its heat over Tyne and lines up against London RC at 17:50.
Saturday's Longshot Ledger
Here is where the lucky dip really shows. Five of the six trophies that run their time trials on Saturday morning carry a beth20 pick the crowd left for dead:
- Bea Langridge Trophy: City of Cambridge B, 0.00%. The crowd is on Marlow RC A at 46.41%.
- Colgan Foundation Cup: Newcastle Univ B, 0.00%. The crowd is on Oxford Brookes Univ at 42.51%.
- Rayner Cup: Claires Court Sch, 0.88%. The crowd wants Marlow RC at 34.07%.
- Groton School Challenge Cup: Norwich Sch, 0.88%. The crowd backs Wallingford RC A at 29.82%.
- Di Ellis Trophy: Newark, 0.90%. Half the field, 50.00%, is on Wycliffe Coll A.
Not one of the chasing three touched any of them. The trio sit on Wycliffe Coll A, Marlow RC A, Headington and Wallingford like everyone else. None of these longshots has scored a point yet; they all race today. If one or two come good, fifteen points becomes a gulf. If they sink, the chalk reels beth20 back in by sundown.
Three Things to Watch
- Leander A versus Leander B, Ron Needs quarter-final, 14:40. The crowd's 36.96% favourite has to beat its own clubmates to reach Sunday.
- Thames versus Marlow, Copas quarter-final, 16:50. beth20 and M Murphy collide, and one of the top four loses a pick on the spot.
- The zeros. City of Cambridge B (Bea Langridge) and Newcastle Univ B (Colgan) carry no crowd support at all and beth20's blind luck. Watch the morning time trials; if those names sit near the top of the sheet, the I'm-feeling-lucky button is having the weekend of its life.
The cartel still owns most of the board, and one of its favourites is already gone. beth20 isn't betting on anything; the dice already rolled. By Saturday night we will know whether the luckiest board at Henley can keep its nerve.
